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Asilomar 2007: Transportation and Climate Policy

The 11th Biennial Conference on Transportation and Energy Policy investigated three broad strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation: reducing motorized travel, shifting to less energy intensive modes, and changing fuels and propulsion technologies. This invitation-only gathering drew its largest attendance yet, 283 attendees, with representatives from industry, academia, international governments and NGOs, and was held August 21-24, 2007 at the Asilomar Conference Center in Pacific Grove, Calif.

Following are some highlights of the thorny questions posed at the conference, and some of the many thoughtful perspectives on the issues, as discussed in the closing roundtable discussion.

 

Can CO2 really be reduced by 60-80% by 2050?
We’ll need a combination of policies and actions – reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT), improved vehicle fuel economy, and reduced carbon content in fuel – to successfully reduce GHG in the transportation sector. If you can’t do all three and don’t get policies lined up to move all three, we could easily see a repeat of the last 20 years, where technology has marched along but rated fuel economy has been flat. 
--George Eads, CRA International

It’s not a question of what we can do. We have to shift the discussion to ‘how do we do what we must do.’ Politicians are starting to come around. Consumer behavior is central. It will require creativity but it can be done. Historically, society has shifted and the country has tackled big problems, as soon as politicians have stepped up to the plate.
-- John DeCicco, Environmental Defense

It cannot be done by rationing energy. It needs to be done with a net economic benefit. Everybody has to be involved, and everyone has to want to use less than they can afford. Additionally, cars have to weigh less; we can’t do it without that element.
-- Bob Epstein, E2

Even in red states, there’s a growing awareness of the problem, but not awareness that this problem is different from those before. We cleaned up gasoline and installed catalytic converters essentially without sacrifice. So we have a law that says California will reduce GHG from vehicles without sacrificing. It’s a daunting problem, nationwide. A challenge we have to look at, as Americans, to convince people that it’s a problem that’s worthy of sacrifice.
--George Parks, Conoco-Phillips

Is VMT reduction a realistic goal and how?
Absolute VMT reduction on the global scale is probably not a realistic goal. But cutting growth in half by 2055, is a “slam dunk” and absolute flat VMT is not out of the question, thanks to population aging trends, demand reduction strategies, and increased investment in transit, pedestrian and bicycling projects globally. Ten years from now I’ll bet that the 3-year VMT trend is a flat line or downward trend.
--David Burwell, BBG Group

People have constantly forecast this for the last 20 years and they’ve been consistently wrong. This idea of baby boomers giving up the wheel when they get older, I think you’re kidding yourself.
--John German, Honda

 

Is there a paradigm shift in consumer behavior?
We’ve made such a limited effort to change consumer behavior. For example, in California, we’ve reduced consumer energy consumption by 10% with a modest investment. A similar modest investment in the transportation sector would be far greater than we’re doing today. We’re understating the potential, with investment in public education.
--Tim Carmichael, Coalition for Clean Air

The key is: how to come up with new products that grab consumers? The idea of sacrifice isn’t going to go anywhere.
--Marianne Mintz, Argonne National Lab

Anyone counting on it will be sorely disappointed, primarily due to a single factor: rising standard of living. People want to enjoy the fruits of their labor and telling them they can’t spend money on things they want is pointless.
--John German, Honda

 

What about the changing oil market?
Oil security should not be a co-benefit of reducing greenhouse gases; it should be seen as a co-product. The IEA predicts non-OPEC oil production will be flat after 2010; it will be increasingly difficult for non-OPEC oil countries to produce. OPEC won’t expand. As a result, the world will turn to coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and more carbon-intensive forms. The stakes are high – in terms of motivations and in terms of consequences of taking the path of least resistance to meeting global energy needs.
-- David Greene, Oak Ridge National Lab

China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest energy market by 2010. All analyses are pointing toward a convergence of the electricity grid and transport, sooner rather than later. Despite coal growth in emerging markets, trend lines show the power sector can be de-carbonized by the middle of the century, thanks to carbon capture and storage technology and renewable investments. The power sector is throwing down the gauntlet to the transport sector to join them in de-carbonizing.
-- Robert Dixon, International Energy Agency

 

What is the role of economy-wide policies in transport?
Transport needs to be included in economy-wide policies, but fuels and vehicles policies, alone, are not enough. We will‘Will also need sector policies. 
Anthony Eggert, ITS-Davis

We haven’t focused enough on the connections between transport and other lifestyle factors. How much of a personal carbon profile is transportation? Vegetarians can cut 18% from their carbon profile. We can stop purchasing products from China. We need to quantify the value of carbon and we need to put a monetary value on life – how many people will die by 2050? Climate change won’t start in 2050, we’ll be living in it. 
--Alan McKinnon, Heriot-Watt University, Scotland

We see a perfect storm building. Climate change is one – with an interesting time factor. The second piece is peak oil – we’ll be on our knees if it happens. The third piece is mega cities – with severe air pollution. We simply have to get away from oil. We don’t have any options. These mega cities with massive numbers of vehicles and stagnant air patterns – even if we’re efficient, and we reduce VMT, it still all adds up. The answer is to electrify the vehicle.
--Chris Sloane, General Motors

We need a portfolio approach and to support a range of technologies, some of which have uncertainties. And given that it takes time to ramp up any of these solutions, it says we can’t pick winners. We also need to be willing to stay in there for the long term.
--Joan Ogden, ITS-Davis

This focus on building a tool box is too small. We need to build a hardware store empire.  We need big science, not just evolutionary engineering: lignin to ethanol, a ten-times reduction in battery cost, hydrogen storage and production, carbon sequestration – lots of big science imperatives. We need to change the scale.
--Paul Wuebben, South Coast Air Quality Management District